At a glance: the United States and Bangladesh, 2024
The project's case study: an advanced, high-income, high-emitting economy and an emerging, lower-middle-income, low-emitting and highly climate-exposed one.
World map
Choose an indicator. Hover an economy for its value. The last four options show the modelled income impact by 2100 (red = income lost, blue = income gained).
CO₂ per person, 1960 to 2024
Press play, or drag the slider. Colors are capped at 20 tonnes so differences among most economies stay visible.
Scenarios and modelled income impact to 2100
Pick an economy. The left chart shows actual emissions and three scenarios (not predictions). The right chart shows the modelled impact on the economy's income from the warming each scenario implies.
Scenarios: Base case (each economy's 2010–19 carbon-intensity trend continues), Fast transition (every economy reaches the pace of the fastest tenth within a decade), and a Stress case (a bound where intensity stops improving; not a forecast). Income impact uses a re-estimated temperature–growth relationship (Burke, Hsiang & Miguel 2015 method), central specification.
Income vs emissions
Every dot is an economy; bubble area is population. Emissions rise roughly one-for-one with income. Drag the year.
Read this first
- Territorial CO₂ only (fossil fuels and cement produced inside each country); no land use, methane or trade-adjusted emissions.
- Scenarios are not predictions. Backtests show a typical economy's forecast is off by about 11% at five years and 18% at nine; beyond that, only what-if paths are meaningful.
- Income impacts are uncertain by one to two orders of magnitude and cover income effects only (no sea level, cyclones, health or displacement).
- Income groups are the World Bank's current classification. Data quality notes, sources and the full analysis are in the repository.